Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 05/0531Z from Region 2661 (N06E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (06 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 04/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun Class M 10/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jun 079 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10