Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03/1456Z from Region 2661 (N06E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 03/1916Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jun 078 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 012/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/10/10 Minor Storm 20/01/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/10