Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 02/1757Z from Region 2661 (N06E54). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 01/2210Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/2228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 497 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jun 078 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/20