Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0143Z from Region 2661 (N05E64). There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 01/2025Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 802 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Jun, 04 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jun 076 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 076/077/078 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 009/010-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/20/15