Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/2313Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1206Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 29/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 29/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 490 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun Class M 05/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 May 076 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 29 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 032/049 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/05/05