Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 27/1827Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 27/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 27/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13235 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 May) and quiet levels on day three (30 May).
III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 May 082 Predicted 28 May-30 May 082/080/075 90 Day Mean 27 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 013/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/10