Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 24/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 25/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17618 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May), unsettled to active levels on day two (27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May).
III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 May 076 Predicted 26 May-28 May 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 25 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 010/012-015/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20