SPC May 20, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 May 2017

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will continue to be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains through parts of the Ozark Plateau and mid Mississippi Valley. A marginal wind damage and hail threat will also be possible across parts of western West Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing in parts of north-central Texas, southern to eastern Oklahoma and Missouri. This activity is located along the northwestern edge of a moist and unstable airmass where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The largest area of severe storms was located from near the Red River into the Tulsa area which is located along the southeastern edge of a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet. This feature was creating strong deep-layer shear profiles which will continue to support a severe threat as the MCS moves northeastward across much of eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri this evening. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats but a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out. An isolated tornado and large hail threat will also be possible across north-central Texas on the southern edge of the stronger low-level flow where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE values are estimated to be the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. ...Central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing in western West Virginia. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio Valley. The RAP is analyzing weak instability ahead of the line along with marginal wind shear for a severe threat. For this reason, the line is expected to continue to weaken over the next hour or two. A few strong wind gusts will still be possible with parts of the line that can remain intact over the next hour or so. A marginal severe threat may also continue for another hour or two from eastern Maryland across Delaware where a maximum in instability is analyzed by the RAP. ..Broyles.. 05/20/2017 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html

Categories:
Tags:

[D] [Digg] [FB] [R] [SU] [Tweet] [G]

NEWSMAIL