SPC MD 784

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 May 16:29

MD 0784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Areas affected...South-central KS...Northern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192028Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across south-central KS and extreme northern OK. Hail is the primary threat, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has developed from western OK into extreme south-central KS, per surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. With minimal CINH observed across this portion of KS/OK convection is expected to gradually increase with continued heating, albeit modest due to extensive cloud cover. Over the last hour or so thunderstorms have gradually increased across southwest KS along the cold front. This activity is expected to shift east into an air mass characterized by dew points in the mid 60s with mid 70s temperatures. While low-level shear is currently weak, deep-layer shear is more than adequate for sustained rotating updrafts and a few supercells could evolve across this region. Backed low-level flow may contribute to the tornado potential, though hail is the primary risk. ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36969828 37939804 38479671 38009586 37189582 36609751 36969828 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0784.html

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