SPC MD 782

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 May 2017

MD 0782 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...DC...MD...DE...SOUTHEASTERN PA...NJ...AND THE NYC METRO VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Areas affected...Portions of central/northern VA...DC...MD... DE...southeastern PA...NJ...and the NYC Metro Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191936Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind and marginally severe hail threat may develop through this evening. Due to the overall marginal severe weather risk, watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection developing along a surface trough extends from central VA northeastward to just northwest of the NYC metro as of 1930Z. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s amidst strong diurnal heating, and sufficient low-level moisture is contributing to weak/moderate instability. MLCAPE generally ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg, increasing with southward extent across the discussion area. However, this region will remain displaced to the south of stronger mid-level flow associated with an eastward-moving trough across Ontario/Quebec and New England. Indeed, 19Z RAP Mesoanalysis suggests 500 mb flow of 25-35 kt will remain over this area, and effective bulk shear should remain weak (30 kt or less) owing to these modest mid-level winds and veered westerly/northwesterly low-level winds. While isolated instances of marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds producing tree damage cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will likely remain too marginal to warrant watch issuance due to the limited kinematic environment. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38397927 39177826 40057664 41037425 41097361 41017339 40587324 40457390 39697406 38947470 38387703 38047899 38397927 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0782.html

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