SPC May 19, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 May 03:26

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible over a part of southern Texas mainly Sunday evening and overnight. Other strong storms will be possible during the day over a portion of the Ohio Valley. ...Southern through south central Texas area... Rich low-level moisture will persist beneath modest mid-level lapse rates in vicinity of a stalled front across south TX where the atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Weak upper disturbances embedded within the southern-stream will foster the development of thunderstorms and possible MCS development along and north of this boundary Sunday evening or overnight. Despite veering winds in the surface-500 mb layer, vertical shear will remain relatively weak owing to modest winds aloft. Some of this activity could produce hail and gusty winds, but at this time overall threat does not appear to warrant more than a marginal risk category. ...Ohio Valley area... Weak lapse rates and areas of clouds/rain will promote marginal instability with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. Storms will likely redevelop along/ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest in warm sector, deep layer winds will strengthen as the upper low circulation moves slowly east-northeast through the Great Lakes. This environment will promote multicell line segments capable of producing a few strong wind gusts. ..Dial.. 05/19/2017 Read more



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