SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 May 2017

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX... ...Southeastern Arizona...much of New Mexico...West Texas... No changes have been made to the existing elevated and critical designations. Critical conditions are still expected across southern NM and west TX as low-level westerly winds increase ahead of a strong upper trough approaching the Great Plains, with elevated conditions surrounding this area across much of NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. The northern extent of elevated conditions will be constrained by a front that will become stationary or retreat slightly northward this afternoon, while the eastward extent will be constrained by the dryline, which is expected to advance into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles. ...Portions of Florida and southern/central Georgia... No changes have been made to the existing elevated area. Near-record temperatures will allow RH values to drop into the 30-40% range this afternoon. Easterly winds will likely remain generally modest, but will be sufficient for elevated to locally critical conditions given hot and relatively dry surface conditions. ..Dean.. 05/18/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ ...Synopsis... Upper low currently moving through the Great Basin is expected to continue moving southeastward into the Four Corners region before pivoting eastward towards the central High Plains. Belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to a shortwave trough rotating around the low is expected to spread over the southern and central Plains tomorrow. At the surface, a low is expected to deepen as it moves across the TX Panhandle while a dryline sharpens from the TX/OK border southward into the Edwards Plateau. Some fire weather conditions are possible behind this dryline from far southeast AZ into west TX. Some fire weather conditions are also possible across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and west Texas... Gusty west winds (i.e. 20 to 30 mph) are expected across the region during the afternoon as strong mid-level flow spreads over a deeply mixed boundary layer. Downslope effects will help push temperatures across portions of Permian Basin and TX South Plains into the 90s with min RH values from 8 to 12 percent. Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated elsewhere across the region, generally from the mid 70s to mid 80s, but dry conditions will still support afternoon RH values in the teens. As such, critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern NM and west TX/Permian Basin where fuels are dry. Critical meteorological conditions are anticipated farther north in the TX South Plains and southern TX Panhandle but fuels are not supportive of a critical fire weather threat. Elevated conditions are expected elsewhere across the region. Isolated dry thunderstorm area from the previous outlook was removed due to the current expectation of less than 10% coverage of thunderstorms. ...Portions of Florida and southern/central Georgia... High temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s across much of the region (5 to 7 degrees above-average) with afternoon RH values generally expected to be in 30s. There is some displacement between the strongest winds (expected over southern FL) and the lowest RH values (expected over northern FL and southern GA) but enough overlap will exist to support an elevated fire weather threat in areas where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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