Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 609 km/s at 15/1854Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/1005Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 May) and active to major storm levels on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 May 071 Predicted 16 May-18 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 014/020-021/030-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 25/40/40 Major-severe storm 05/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/20