Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 12/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).
III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 May 070 Predicted 14 May-16 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 006/005-009/010-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/20/40 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/10/40