Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 12/0339Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 May 069 Predicted 13 May-15 May 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 12 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 006/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/10