Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (12 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 11/0549Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 May 069 Predicted 12 May-14 May 070/072/073 90 Day Mean 11 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 006/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/15