Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 10/0225Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 513 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).
III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 May 069 Predicted 11 May-13 May 069/069/070 90 Day Mean 10 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/15/10