Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 08/2201Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).
III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 May 069 Predicted 10 May-12 May 070/070/071 90 Day Mean 09 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 012/015-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 20/05/20