Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 08/1632Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 265 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 May, 11 May).
III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 071 Predicted 09 May-11 May 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 08 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/005-011/015-011/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/25 Minor Storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/20/20