Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 07/0243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1535 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), quiet levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 May 072 Predicted 08 May-10 May 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-005/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/10/30