Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 05/1454Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3840 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 May) and quiet levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 074 Predicted 06 May-08 May 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 05 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 011/014-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/10