Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 04/1755Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 04/1837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5333 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).
III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 074 Predicted 05 May-07 May 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 04 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/10