Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 03/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7831 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 May 075 Predicted 04 May-06 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 03 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 011/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/20/20