Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 01/1947Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6809 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).
III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 075 Predicted 02 May-04 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 01 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 008/008-009/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/40/40