Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2127Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35070 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 077 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 077/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/20