Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 25/2242Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 66472 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (29 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Apr 080 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 080/081/081 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 35/20/10