Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 798 km/s at 23/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54298 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Apr 080 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 024/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 015/020-015/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/60/60