SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 21 Apr 2017

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slide east-southeast, moving from the central Rocky Mountains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, during the forecast period. As this occurs, a mid-level ridge will move east into the western United States. At the surface, a weak surface low was analyzed this morning across portions of far southeast New Mexico with a weak warm front extending northeast from there into far southeast Oklahoma. This surface low should slowly move northeast into the Big Country region of Texas during the day. At the same time, the warm front is expected to move slowly north this morning before becoming stationary as rain-cooled air reinforces the cold side of the front. During the late afternoon and evening hours, the surface low is expected to redevelop across southeast Oklahoma before moving into Arkansas overnight. ...New Mexico and far West Texas... As the previously mentioned trough moves into the central United States today, a west-northwest-to-east-southeast oriented mid-level jet will overspread much of New Mexico and western Texas. A deeply mixed boundary layer will develop across this area, mixing down this enhanced mid-level flow. The result will be strong, gusty winds in the presence of dry surface conditions. The highest confidence in critical fire-weather conditions will occur across central New Mexico into far West Texas. Here, winds in excess of 20 mph will couple with minimum afternoon relative humidity in the single-digit percents. Elevated fire-weather conditions will surround the critical area. ...Lower Colorado River Valley... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely during the afternoon as northerly winds near 20 mph occur amidst relative-humidity values in the upper single-digits. ...Portions of the southern California coastal ranges and adjacent foothills... The surface pressure gradient should be sufficiently tight through the afternoon to support east-northeast surface winds between 15 and 20 mph, with higher gusts possible. The downslope flow will also support warm temperatures and falling relative-humidity values, which should reach 10-20 percent. Despite fuels not being overly dry, previous coordination with the Oxnard, California, Weather Forecast Office suggests fuels are dry enough to support elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Florida Peninsula... Minimum afternoon relative-humidity values are expected to fall into the 30-40 percent range. Despite relatively light surface winds, the combination of expected minimum relative-humidity values and long-term dry conditions will support an elevated fire-weather threat. ..Marsh.. 04/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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