Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 20/2033Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 459 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 073 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 008/008-009/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/35 Minor Storm 05/05/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/60