SPC Mar 20, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 20 Mar 16:00

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated hail will persist through a portion of the Ohio Valley this afternoon. ...Ohio Valley area... Cluster of storms over IN into southwest OH that are developing within a warm advection regime will continue southeast this afternoon. Strongest storms with a risk for hail will remain on the southwest flank of the MCS where inflow of unstable air is maximized. Threat is expected to diminish by early evening, and due to the very isolated nature of the severe risk, will maintain marginal category this update. ..Dial.. 03/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/ ...IL/IN/OH... A rather large MCS has affected much of IN this morning. This system is tracking southeastward and away from the region, allowing the air mass in its wake to destabilize and recover. Rather steep mid level lapse rates are forecast to re-develop across the area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms currently forming over northeast IL tracking across the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient elevated CAPE and other parameters to favor hail in the stronger cores as they move southeastward across much of IN, and into southwest OH early this evening. ...MO/southern IL... A favorable thermodynamic environment for hail exists farther southwest into parts of southern IL and southern MO today. Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing ACCAS in this region, suggesting some potential for mid-level convective development. Also, 12z CAM solutions indicate some low potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two. If this activity develops, hail would be possible. Given the limited risk of initiation, will not include severe probabilities at this time. ...southern ID... Water vapor loops show a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward across NV. This feature will track into parts of ID later today, aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Snake River Valley. Substantial cloud cover and limited moisture/instability suggest the risk will remain low. However, there is some chance of hail in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more



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