SPC Mar 19, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 Mar 2017

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible through Monday evening across parts of the Midwest eastward to the Appalachians. Isolated storms are also forecast across parts of the Inter-Mountain West late Monday into the overnight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain centered over the southern Plains through most of the period, relegating fast westerly flow aloft to the north-central US and southern Canada on Monday. Gradually, the core of strongest westerlies will settle across the upper Great Lakes. Farther west, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will remain positioned across much of the western US, as a strong impulse and associated jet maximum approach the California coast Monday night. ...Midwest to the Appalachians... Showers and thunderstorms (perhaps in the form of weakening upshear convection and a remnant stratiform precipitation shield) may be ongoing across portions of northern/central Illinois and western Indiana Monday morning. This convection should weaken as low-level flow veers and warm-advection-related ascent decreases. However, a secondary impulse embedded in westerly flow aloft may yield another round of elevated storms within the vicinity of northeastern Illinois/northwestern Indiana during the late morning and afternoon hours. A remnant plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, combined with ample west/northwesterly flow aloft may foster enough updraft organization for instances of small hail. While some low-end severe-hail threat may exist, confidence is too low (due to earlier convection potentially interfering with the thermal profile) for the introduction of a marginal risk area at this time. Some combination of these two rounds of convection will then shift to the east/southeast through the period. ...Inter-Mountain West... Multiple impulses (and related speed maxima) embedded in southwesterly flow aloft, combined with orographic influences, should yield isolated thunderstorms from the interior Pacific Northwest eastward to the Rockies Monday evening into the overnight. ..Picca.. 03/19/2017 Read more



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