SPC Mar 19, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 Mar 2017

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF IA AND IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail may occur tonight over parts of Iowa and northern Illinois. ...IA/IL... Morning water vapor loop shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY. This feature will track eastward across SD/NE today and into the midwest states tonight. Meanwhile, a strengthening southwesterly low level jet will nose into parts of IA/IL tonight. This will enhance low level warm advection and lift, promoting the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly after 10pm). Favorable deep-layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates suggest a conditional risk of hail over much of IA and northern/central IL tonight. However, the consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest that vigorous thunderstorm activity is most likely along a corridor from northeast IA into parts of northern IL. Have therefore focused the Marginal risk area to that zone. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/19/2017 Read more



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