SPC Mar 19, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 Mar 03:30

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for hail and strong gusty winds will be possible in parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Tuesday. ...Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians by afternoon. The front will be the focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. The NAM and GFS solutions are in fairly good agreement on the position of the front near the Tennessee and Kentucky state-line by late afternoon. The models show a pocket of instability along with moderate deep-layer shear located along and just to the south of the front suggesting that a marginal severe threat will be possible. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at Nashville TN at 21z on Tuesday have steep lapse rates in the mid-levels with effective shear of 35 to 45 knots. This may be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Veered low-level winds and west to northwest flow aloft may be also support a tendency for convection to go linear which would contribute to a marginal wind-damage threat as well. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2017 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

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