SPC Mar 19, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Mar 2017

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may linger for the next couple of hours across the southeast Virginia and eastern Carolinas area as well as the Texas Big Bend region. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible through the overnight hours across parts of the Great Basin vicinity, as well as eastern Kansas/western Missouri and vicinity. ...Synopsis... Gradual progression of the upper-level trough-ridge-trough pattern over the U.S. will continue overnight. At the surface, an eastern cold front will continue sagging southward across the southeast quarter of the country, while in the west a front will continue crossing the intermountain west. ...Virginia and the eastern Carolinas area... As an upper low continues advancing across Pennsylvania toward the mid-Atlantic coastal region, showers and a few thunderstorms will continue -- with most of the thunderstorms to occur over eastern North Carolina over the next few hours. As an isolated stronger storm now nearing the southeast North Carolina coast moves offshore, any further severe risk appears minimal. ...Texas Big Bend... Convection continues to gradually diminish across the Big Bend area in conjunction with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer stabilization. This trend should continue over the next few hours, with thunder risk likely to end prior to the 03-04z time frame. ...Parts of the Great Basin vicinity... Gradual eastward advance of a vort max now centered just west of the Lake Tahoe area will result in a minor increase in convective intensity over the Great Basin area. With occasional/isolated lightning strikes possible later this evening/overnight, will maintain a thunder area across parts of Nevada/Utah/southern Idaho and a portion of west-central Wyoming. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri and small parts of surrounding states... Elevated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur late in the period, as a subtle increase in quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent spreads across this area. While small hail cannot be ruled out with a stronger storm, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/19/2017 Read more



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