Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 18/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 805 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Mar 070 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/20