Univ. Of Colorado Model Predicts Likelihood of Romney Win at 77 Percent

By Newsroom America Staff at 17 Oct 2012

(Newsroom America) -- A University of Colorado computer model that has successfully forecast the winner of each of the last eight presidential elections is predicting Republican candidate Mitt Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote in the Nov. 6 race.

The model has successfully predicted the outcome of each race since 1980, the CampusReform.org website reported Wednesday.

The model is unique in that it measures factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next presidential winner.

"Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote," said CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, who developed the model.

The figure is significant not just because of its size but because only four presidents have won office without the popular vote. The last was George W. Bush in 2000.

Berry also noted that while his model is accurate, it doesn't "calculate a specific confidence level for the Electoral College result."

Besides the economy, Berry said unemployment also adds an element which only increases the accuracy of his model.

"The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent," he said.

Kenneth Bickers, a professor at CU-Boulder, added that "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."

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