Gallup Poll Finds Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

(Newsroom America) -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll has found most Americans believe President Obama will win the presidential election this fall, which is virtually unchanged since May despite three intervening months of campaigning.

Those who say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today overwhelmingly believe he will win, by an 86% to 9% margin.

One reason Obama has the edge in overall predictions about the election is that Mitt Romney voters are less positive that their candidate will prevail, with 28% saying Obama will win, compared with 65% who believe Romney will win.

Election predictions also show expected party differences, although Democrats are more optimistic about their candidate's chances (80% say Obama will win) than is the case among Republicans (60% say Romney will win).

By 58% to 35%, independents say Obama will win, despite independents' vote preferences being closely divided this year.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 20-22, 2012, with a random sample of 1,033 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, Gallup says with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.