SPC MD 1783

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SERN OK/SRN AR/NERN TX/NRN LA/W CENTRAL MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK/SRN AR/NERN TX/NRN LA/W CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181129Z - 181330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS SERN OK/WRN AND CENTRAL AR HAS BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR WW CONSIDERATION. DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR ATTM...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THIS REGION IS ALSO NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- WHICH IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTIVE OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE...WITH A SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT NOW OVER W CENTRAL AR AND SOME SSEWD ACCELERATION OF THE STORMS NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER JUST SW OF THIS LOW. GIVEN THAT THIS MCS HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED -- AND THUS MORE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34569340 34359241 33549092 32719063 32479176 32739378 33829527 34209405 34569340 Read more

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