SPC Aug 18, 2012 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012 VALID 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE COVERAGE APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT THAT THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D4 WILL RELAX AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE EAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST DURING D4-5. THEREAFTER...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IMPULSE WILL EVOLVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS IMPULSE MAY AID IN A SEVERE RISK DEVELOPING AROUND D6-7. BUT...WITH ONLY MODERATE KINEMATIC FIELDS DEPICTED ON THE DEEPER SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/