SPC Aug 11, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND CENTRAL/SWRN LA... ADJUSTED THE TX/GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...AND ALSO ADJUSTED LOW SVR PROBS A BIT SWD OVER NWRN NEB. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SERN LOWER MI WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH NW/NLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN TX AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY IS GREATEST /1500-LOCALLY 2500 J/KG/ IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SERN TX...WITH LESSER VALUES OF INSTABILITY /500 - 1000 J/KG/ NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. SLIGHT RISK AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH SHARPENS AND A LOBE OF ASCENT IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS NWD...AND WEAKER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT CLOSER TO THE COAST LIFT NWD. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PREFER TO LEAVE THE ERN U.S. SLIGHT RISK INTACT FOR NOW. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED TO A FEW AREAS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..BUNTING.. 08/11/2012 Read more

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