SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA... ...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS... NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA... ONE MINOR CHANGE TO THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN MADE TO REMOVE A SMALL PART OF FAR NERN CA. WITHIN THE REMOVED AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN GREATLY LIMITED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REMOVED AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF MODEST ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACCOMPANYING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE COVERAGE OF ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMOVED AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ..COHEN.. 08/03/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012/ ...SYNOPSIS... A STUBBORN MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE S-CNTRL STATES AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...A THERMAL AXIS WITH VERY HOT TEMPS WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS OK WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- LEADING TO PROBABLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NWD ALONG THE CNTRL-NRN CA COAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD FROM THE DESERT SW AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...LEADING TO A PROBABLE CRITICAL DRY TSTM RISK OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NV/SIERRA NEVADA/NRN CA. ...NERN-CNTRL-SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS... DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL KS DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH IN AREAS ACROSS THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK AND EXTENDING INTO THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING RH FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. PRECONDITIONING PERIOD OF BACKGROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALOUS /I.E. RECORD-BREAKING/ CONDITIONS AND EXTREME DROUGHT WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...W-CNTRL NV / SRN-NRN SIERRA NEVADA / PORTIONS OF NRN CA... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS NWD ACROSS CNTRL CA...SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY TSTM RISK WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...FOCUSING FROM NEAR AND S OF THE I-80 VICINITY DURING THE 20-06Z PERIOD AND LATER ACROSS NRN CA DURING THE 03-12Z PERIOD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH A DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN THE SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSED AREA...BUT AN APPRECIABLE SIGNAL /AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED/ FOR INITIALLY DRY TSTMS EXISTS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR NRN CA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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