SPC Jul 29, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CONFINED TO THE PAC NW ...NRN ROCKIES...WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.S. IMPULSES WITHIN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ...GREAT LAKES... MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND SURFACE WIND SHIFT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR STG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...MT... ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY AS LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRUSHES THE AREA. LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT. ...PORTIONS OF OH/MS VALLEY REGION... ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...HAVE OPTED TO ADD LOW SVR PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WARM-ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF INTENSE HEATING. WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT OF 25-30 KTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS POSING AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST. UNCERTAINTY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO EFFECTS OF PRIOR CONVECTION ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ..BUNTING.. 07/29/2012 Read more

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