Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Jul 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03) produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17) continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04 July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane. III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul Class M 55/55/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jul 133 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 119 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 013/018-013/015-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 35/35/15