SPC Jun 26, 2012 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012 VALID 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND NERN STATES. ON FRIDAY/DAY 4...THE MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING THIS FEATURE ESEWD INTO THE NCNTRL STATES. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THE FEATURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE DAY. BEYOND DAY 6...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE DAKOTAS EXTENDING EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ATTM. Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/