SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...CNTRL WY... ...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT... NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...CNTRL WY... THE FORECAST OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK AS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL AND MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THIS AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. ...FAR NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...S-CNTRL NEB... ANOTHER HOT/DRY DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION. ...ERN AZ...NWRN NM...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO...SERN WY... A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS INDICATED BY THE ONGOING FORECAST FROM ERN AZ NEWD INTO SERN WY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA. ..JIRAK.. 06/25/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012/ ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN MT AND SRN SK...AND A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. S OF THE SURFACE LOW...A LEE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW FROM KS NWD INTO ND. ...PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV...W-CNTRL/SWRN UT... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...S-SWLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN UT. GIVEN MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE. ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...CNTRL WY... MIDLEVEL SWLYS OVER MT/WY ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30+ MPH SURFACE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ...FAR NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS...S-CNTRL NEB... A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL/ERN AZ...ERN UT...WRN/CNTRL CO... A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

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