SPC Jun 16, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS... ...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY... WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE THE ERN DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A MORE MEANINGFUL MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SPEED MAX LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG NERN PLUME OF STRONG EML THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SCNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVE FREE ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SUCH THAT ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF N-S PROGRESSIVE SFC FRONT. NAM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND BY 18/00Z WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SWD ALONG DRY LINE WHERE INTENSE SFC HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE TSTMS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CAP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN AS INDICATED THEN A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH AN EXPANDING THREAT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS ROOTED IN NEAR-SFC BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. ...ELSEWHERE... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A BAND OF MODEST WLY FLOW WILL EXTEND TO NEAR THE OH RIVER WHILE A MORE DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL BE NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FAIRLY WEAK BUT POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL ZONE OF SFC CONFLUENCE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO MO DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LESS IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BUT A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...EARLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD EVENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED 5% SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR A THREAT OF HAIL/WIND. ..DARROW.. 06/16/2012 Read more

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